#1 Ibis1

Ibis1

Veteran Falcon

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Posted 13 July 2008 — 04:56 PM

Jim Cramer, the often loud and always bullish host of a popular CNBC show, is now bearish.

Cramer frequently tells his audience that he believes there is always a bull market somewhere, and it s his goal to help them find it.

But this time is different; it s doom itself, Cramer recently wrote in New York magazine. In 25 years on Wall Street, I have never seen things this bad.

Cramer is a former hedge fund manager who delivered a compounded rate of return of 24 percent for 15 years at his firm, Cramer Berkowitz.

His investment advice is always very specific, and he is also clear about what he sees over the short term.

Sell everything. Nothing s working, he writes.

Revisit when the prices are adjusted for a big recession, soaring inflation, and a crushed consumer. Sell at 12,000 and come back at 10,000. Even better: short it, said Cramer.

Barclays Capital agrees with Cramer s assessment of inflation. It is now predicting that headline inflation will spike to 5.5 percent by August, and the Fed will respond by increasing interest rates six times before the end of 2009.

The Consumer Confidence Index is also near all-time lows.

The Conference Board Consumer Research Center recently reported consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions continues to grow more negative and suggests the economy remains stuck in low gear.

Looking ahead, consumer outlook is so bleak that the Expectations Index has reached a new all-time low, the group reported.

Cramer cites Wall Street layoffs as a sign of the troubles. More than 40,000 investment bankers and sales people are expected to lose their jobs at Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, UBS, Citigroup, and what was once Bear Stearns.

We ve had some tough times: the 1987 stock market crash, the collapse of the once-all-powerful Drexel Burnham Lambert, the immolation of Long Term Capital, the post-9/11 calamity, and the dot-com implosion. Every one of these events rocked the Street, causing pay cuts and layoffs and creating a sense of doom.

A long-term bull, Cramer admits his bullish bias, I am an inherent optimist about Wall Street. Every time I ve seen one business go down, there was always a replacement business right behind it.

But with investment banking, bonds, equities, and mergers and acquisitions all stumbling at the same time, he concludes, Try as I might to see where new business can come from, I don t see it coming anytime soon.

He ll be bullish again, after a big recession, when inflation is tamed, and the consumer feels better about the economy.

© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

#2 1968again

1968again

Starting Lineup

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Posted 13 July 2008 — 05:15 PM

Tom Petruno. The Times’ ace business reporter and editor, recently wrote . The debate over whether we are, or aren’t, actually in a recession will go on, but to some analysts there’s no question anymore. Merrill Lynch & Co. economist David Rosenberg says the lesson from history is that ‘you don’t have six consecutive monthly declines in payrolls and not be in an outright recession.’

John McCain . like the fellow Republican he’s seeking to replace in the White House, has been reluctant to use the R-word, even as he increasingly focuses on topic No. 1 for most Americans — the sputtering economy.

Today, McCain pretty much threw in the towel when asked on MSNBC whether these are recessionary times.

I would imagine that, technically, there is some question amongst economists about that, but the fact is Americans are hurting, they are hurting badly,» he said.

He continued (a bit awkwardly), If we’re technically in a recession or not, I would imagine that we are, but the major thing is that Americans are hurting and Americans don’t like it and they think America is in the wrong direction.»

#3 capologist

capologist

Dave Ramsey/Ron Paul Disciple!

Pure Football 54,798 posts

Posted 13 July 2008 — 07:14 PM

1968again (7/13/2008) Tom Petruno. The Times’ ace business reporter and editor, recently wrote . The debate over whether we are, or aren’t, actually in a recession will go on, but to some analysts there’s no question anymore. Merrill Lynch & Co. economist David Rosenberg says the lesson from history is that ‘you don’t have six consecutive monthly declines in payrolls and not be in an outright recession.’

John McCain . like the fellow Republican he’s seeking to replace in the White House, has been reluctant to use the R-word, even as he increasingly focuses on topic No. 1 for most Americans — the sputtering economy.

Today, McCain pretty much threw in the towel when asked on MSNBC whether these are recessionary times.

I would imagine that, technically, there is some question amongst economists about that, but the fact is Americans are hurting, they are hurting badly,» he said.

He continued (a bit awkwardly), If we’re technically in a recession or not, I would imagine that we are, but the major thing is that Americans are hurting and Americans don’t like it and they think America is in the wrong direction.»

Until we have two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP we aren’t in a recession. I’d actually like for people to wait until we at least have 1 quarter of negative real GDP before making the doomsday statements. The only recession occurring is the media-generated version and I wonder why that would be.

#4 GEORGIAfan

Gheto_Po_Folk!

Pure Football 42,127 posts

Posted 13 July 2008 — 07:25 PM

capologist (7/13/2008)

1968again (7/13/2008) Tom Petruno. The Times’ ace business reporter and editor, recently wrote . The debate over whether we are, or aren’t, actually in a recession will go on, but to some analysts there’s no question anymore. Merrill Lynch & Co. economist David Rosenberg says the lesson from history is that ‘you don’t have six consecutive monthly declines in payrolls and not be in an outright recession.’

John McCain . like the fellow Republican he’s seeking to replace in the White House, has been reluctant to use the R-word, even as he increasingly focuses on topic No. 1 for most Americans — the sputtering economy.

Today, McCain pretty much threw in the towel when asked on MSNBC whether these are recessionary times.

I would imagine that, technically, there is some question amongst economists about that, but the fact is Americans are hurting, they are hurting badly,» he said.

He continued (a bit awkwardly), If we’re technically in a recession or not, I would imagine that we are, but the major thing is that Americans are hurting and Americans don’t like it and they think America is in the wrong direction.»

Until we have two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP we aren’t in a recession. I’d actually like for people to wait until we at least have 1 quarter of negative real GDP before making the doomsday statements. The only recession occurring is the media-generated version and I wonder why that would be.

i thought it was 3, but mayb im just not remembering correctly. we are growing, but we aint growing like we would. we are just dealing with heavy amounts of stagflation.