Investors dump Treasury Bond ETFs as odds of Fed rate hike rise
Post on: 15 Июнь, 2015 No Comment
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Treasury-bond bulls retreated last week, as upbeat jobs data prompted some to prepare for a Federal Reserve rate increase as soon as this year.
Investors dumped exchange-traded funds that own government bonds as Treasury yields closed out their biggest five-week gain since 2009. The ETFs experienced $3 billion of withdrawals last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, which almost erased February’s $3.3 billion inflow. The $6.4 billion iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF had the largest outflow in the category in its biggest weekly decline in assets since September.
The withdrawals constitute a turnaround, after investors shovelled money into the Treasury market earlier this year. Signs of slow wage growth and deflation abroad had weighed down yields, and spurred $5.7 billion of inflows into government-bond ETFs during the first two months of the year.
“There’s broader acceptance that yields could be moving higher with the Fed more in play” said John Briggs, head of cross-asset strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Stamford, Connecticut. “Investors are voting with their feet.”
Treasuries sold off March 6 after the Labor Department reported the U.S. added 295,000 jobs last month, compared with a forecast for a 235,000 gain in a Bloomberg survey. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5%, an almost seven-year low, from 5.7%.
“Investors who were constructive have become concerned about the potential for higher rates,” said Matthew Tucker, head of iShares fixed-income strategy in San Francisco at BlackRock Inc.
Futures trading indicates investors see a 66% chance of the Fed raising rates by the end of October, up from 47% at the end of January.
Short Positions
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators boosted positions that profit from a decline in 10-year note to the most since Jan. 20, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. Net-short positions totalled 139,474 contracts as of March 3.
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF lost $884 million of investor cash last week, or about 12% of its market value. The withdrawals were steady, with daily outflows that ranged from $32 million to $416 million.
“There hasn’t been a single event or piece of news to change their behavior” this time around, Tucker said. “It’s a growing consensus that the Fed may move sooner.”