Finding The Best InflationFighting Investments
Post on: 31 Март, 2015 No Comment
Wall Street’s marketing mavens are pounding a steady drumbeat, urging investors to defend themselves against inflation.
The average annual climb in the Consumer Price Index, the most common yardstick for inflation, is 2.99% since 1926, according to DWS Investments. But with inflation more recently at 1.14% and flat, what’s the rush?
One reason to act now is the difficulty of trying to time the exact onset of rising inflation, says Kristina Hooper, head of portfolio strategies for Allianz Global Investors.
Most economists expect the jump within three years, she adds.
Another reason to act soon is that some measures of inflation are higher than others. And some costs of living are rising faster than others, says Mark Peterson, head of DWS’ mutual fund strategy.
Some investors may want more protection against some rising costs than others, he adds.
So if you are an act-now investor, what are the best protections against inflation? Several areas can do the trick. Just remember that each comes with its own risk.
• Floating-rate loans. Those assets correlate closest to inflation.
Floating-rate bank loans are made to corporations, typically with credit ratings below investment grade.
Interest rates float above a short-term benchmark, such as the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor. Adjustments commonly can be made every 30 to 90 days.
That lets them tack closely to moves in the CPI.
Individual investors can invest in such loans via loan-participation mutual funds. The category racked up an average annual return of 1.94% for the 12 months ended March 3. That topped the 1.53% average for general domestic bond funds. It lagged junk-bond funds’ 3.58%.
High average yield and inflation correlation are attractions.
Credit risk is a potential danger. The category had a lot of exposure to Lehman Bros. Peterson says. The group lost 27% in 2008.
• Ultrashort-term bonds and commodities. These are the next two asset classes that correlate highest to inflation. Both are accessible via mutual funds.
Ultrashort bond funds may not pay attractive yields. Trying to pick the hottest commodities exposes you to volatility, Peterson says. Instead, he recommends diversified commodity funds.
• Dividend-paying stocks. These stocks typically outperform when rates are rising, says Allianz’s Hooper.
From June 30, 2004, to its peak June 29, 2006, the Fed Funds rate rose to 5.25% from 1%. Total return for the S&P 500 High-Yield Dividends Aristocrats Index topped Treasuries’s by 15.8 percentage points.
One potential downside is that S&P 500 stocks tend to grow less over time than do smaller, more nimble stocks.
• High-yield bonds. This is another group that outperforms Treasuries in rising rate environments. Their yields are attractive. The downside is default risk.
• Convertible bonds. A double-edge sword. Their stocklike potential price appreciation boosts their outlook for total return. But potential price depreciation hurts their short-term safety, says Burns McKinney, a portfolio manager with NFJ Investment Group.
And how about TIPS? Surprising, they are not among the top correlators with inflation, Peterson says. Other groups they lag: high-yield muni bonds and natural resources.