EuroDollar Parity Is Now the New Economic Normal Pg 2

Post on: 30 Март, 2015 No Comment

EuroDollar Parity Is Now the New Economic Normal Pg 2

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Gallo said that the markets could have been getting a bit overoptimistic on Europe. To get a long-lasting recovery, Europe needs investment in the real economy, lending and hiring, he said. And investment, which fell 18% since the crisis, is still flat.

The European Central Bank started buying sovereign bonds on Monday, and this had an immediate effect on bond prices, which rose — especially the prices of bonds issued by core eurozone countries. Various market participants said the ECB had bought mainly German, French, Dutch and Belgian sovereign bonds. (The ECB did not comment on its purchases; it is due to publish detailed breakdowns of its program once a month.)

There were some economic data on Monday and Tuesday that had been expected to provide more clarity on the eurozone recovery — but in fact they prolonged the uncertainty. The Sentix index of investor sentiment came in at 18.6 points in March, the highest level since August 2007, signaling strong confidence.

French industrial output surprised on the upside, rising by 0.4% in January compared with expectations of a fall of 0.3%. Automobile production and energy output showed strong rises, helped by the weak euro and lower energy prices. This points to a continuation of France’s economic recovery, but the same thing cannot be said about Italy. Industrial production in Italy fell by 0.7% in January, reversing December’s 0.4% rise and disappointing expectations of a 0.5% increase. In other words, things are still mixed for the eurozone’s economy, despite the ECB’s bond-buying program.

The continuing spat with Greece doesn’t help either. A meeting of eurozone finance ministers ended Monday with an agreement that technical discussions between Greek finance experts and eurozone ones will begin on Wednesday, but also with a warning to Greece to stop wasting time.

EuroDollar Parity Is Now the New Economic Normal Pg 2

Interestingly, an opinion poll published by Greek paper eKathimerini shows that nearly 70% of Greeks want the government to reach an honorable compromise with the EU to avoid having to leave the eurozone, with only around 27% opting for no compromise even if it means leaving the eurozone.

At this point, any good news from Athens is so unexpected that it would be about the only thing that could trigger a reversal of the euro’s sinking trend vs. the dollar. However, with reports that Greece has cash for only three more weeks doing the rounds on Bloomberg. investors shouldn’t count on it.

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published at 12:00 p.m. EST on Real Money on March 10.


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