VictorReklaitis

Markets writer

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — If anyone throws a party for the bull market’s fifth birthday this weekend, sectors like consumer discretionary and industrials will deserve the biggest pieces of birthday cake.

They’ve outperformed and led the S&P 500 SPX, +1.26%   to record highs over the five years since the index recovered from a bear-market closing low on March 9, 2009. The S&P 500 has posted a healthy annualized return of 24% since that low, and these have done even better.

But once the celebration ends, the next question is whether those same sectors and their related exchange-traded funds will keep their lead as the bull market ages into a sixth year.

While strategists have a variety of views on which S&P 500 sectors are likely to fare best in the next 12 months, there are some common favorites. They include tech, industrials and financials. The latter two beat the broad market over the last five years.

One way to bet on those areas is through sector ETFs, such as the Technology Select Sector SPDR XLK, +0.65% the Industrial Select Sector SPDR XLF, +2.17%  and the Financial Select Sector SPDR XLF, +2.17%

Significantly, there isn’t much enthusiasm among strategists for utilities and consumer staples — defensive sectors that perform better as a bull market ends or turns into a bear market. Related ETFs are the Utilities Select Sector SPDR XLU, +1.90%  and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR XLP, +1.46%  .

That suggests the bull market isn’t played out yet, or — if you’re worried and contrarian — perhaps too much complacency.

Either way, the sectors currently favored by strategists aren’t for market crashes. Tech, industrials and financials are generally classified as early or mid-cycle plays, as explained concisely in this Barry Ritholtz blog post and more extensively in this Fidelity Investments research paper.

“I think we’ve got more upside in this bull market,” said Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist for U.S. Trust, a Bank of America wealth management business. Using a baseball analogy, Quinlan said he views the current advance as in its “sixth inning.”

Industrials as Europe play

Consumer discretionary, tech and industrials are Dave Mazza’s three top picks for the next 12 months. He is the head of ETF investment strategy at State Street Global Advisors, the giant asset manager behind the Select Sector SPDRs.