CREDIT MARKETS Prices of Treasury Issues Dip New Supply Called Factor

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CREDIT MARKETS Prices of Treasury Issues Dip New Supply Called Factor
By MICHAEL QUINT
Published: June 10, 1982

Prices of Treasury notes and bonds declined modestly yesterday on news of upcoming Treasury offerings. Securities dealers said that the supply of Treasury issues was growing at the same time that investors such as insurance companies and pension funds were showing little buying interest. As a result, they said, prices were being reduced until a level was found where demand from investors and speculators will increase.

»With heavy Treasury borrowing, the markets might be faced with longer periods of indigestion,» said J. Scott Winningham, a money market economist at McCarthy, Crisanti & Maffei Inc. Along with many other analysts, he noted that the ability of the Treasury securities market to absorb large new issues had been reduced recently as firms became more cautious about lending money or securities in the wake of the collapse of Drysdale Government Securities Inc.

The latest sign of the increasing supply of Treasury issues was the announcement late yesterday of a $5.5 billion two-year note sale on June 16, and $4 billion of four-year notes on June 23. To Retire $7 Billion Debt

Together the two issues will retire nearly $7 billion of maturing debt and raise $2.5 billion of new cash for the Treasury. These two issues will conclude the Treasury’s second-quarter note sales. In the third and fourth quarters, analysts expect borrowing to increase further, as the Treasury will need to raise an estimated $90 billion of cash.

Prices of outstanding two- and four-year issues fell by less than an eighth of a point on the day, but did not change much in response to the announcments, which were widely anticipated. The 13 3/4 percent issue due in 1984 was offered late in the day at 99 18/32 to yield 14.01 percent and the 14 percent notes due in 1986 were offered at 99 3/4 to yield 14.06 percent.

In the bond market, meanwhile, analysts said that the lack of new Treasury issues might not last much longer since the House Ways and Means Committee yesterday approved an amendment to increase by $30 billion the Treasury’s authority to sell bonds with a coupon of more than 4 1/4 percent. The Treasury exhausted its authority to sell high coupon bonds last January, and since then the omission of an estimated $5 billion of bond issues has helped to support prices in that sector.

Before learning of the House committee’s action, Treasury bonds due in 20 years or more had increased during the day. After the announcement, however, the bellwether 14 percent bonds due in 2011 fell to an offered price of 101 30/32 to yield 13.72 percent, down from a peak of 102 3/8 earlier in the day.

Although the committee action helped to clear the way for a 20-year bond sale in late June with payment in early July, analysts said that the legislation must still be attached to a revenue bill and then approved. Fed Action Foreseen

While the supply of Treasury issues would argue for lower prices and higher rates, some analysts were encouraged to believe that upward pressure on rates might be offset by a greater willingness at the Federal Reserve to supply credit, or reserves, to the banking system.

Yesterday, when the Fed bought an undisclosed amount of Treasury bills for its own account, some analysts said the move showed a greater willingness to provide credit. Others, however, said the extra reserves were needed to offset the reserve drains that typically follow the June 15 payment of corporate income taxes and the increase in currency in circulation related to vacation travel.

»The purchases increase the prospect that the Fed is in the process of further easing of monetary policy,» said Albert Gross, an economist at Refco, a government securities firm. »They added more reserves than was needed for seasonal purposes.»

Other analysts, however, said the move was of no policy significance, and estimated that reserves would remain scarce enough so that overnight bank loans in the Federal funds market would fluctuate between 13 and 14 percent.

Whatever the policy implications, the price of Treasury bills increased enough to lower the rate for the three-month issue about an eighth of a percentage point, to 12.02 percent.

In the tax-exempt market, underwriters led by Salomon Brothers said that a $140.5 million issue of Aaa-rated Maryland bonds was all sold but for about $9.8 million. Yields on the issue ranged from 8.75 percent for bonds due in 1985 to 10.7 percent in 1992 and 11.6 percent in 1997.

In the note sector, a $450 million issue of 9 3/8 percent Minnesota notes due in one year was offered at a price of 100 by a Merrill Lynch group that said only $75 million of notes remained unsold.


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